Following the unsuccessful 2025 deyr rains and a stalled recovery from the historic 2020-2023 drought, FEWS NET now projects that area-level Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will develop in January 2026 across portions of southern and northwestern agropastoral and much of northern and central pastoral regions. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are anticipated in areas less impacted by previous weather and conflict shocks or where households have slightly higher asset bases. The deyr harvest has failed, and pasture and water resources are critically low entering the January-March jilaal dry season. Crop failure, livestock mortality, and minimal milk availability will severely constrain access to food and income. Rapidly increasing food and water prices and worsening resource-based clan conflicts will further intensify food access challenges. Increased internally displaced persons (IDPs) flows are expected as households relocate to IDP camps and urban centers.

Between February and May, a larger portion of the population is projected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. With overstretched social support networks, some of the most severely affected poor households will likely experience Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), and acute malnutrition levels will rise. With little to no income from agricultural or pastoral activities, many poor households will probably resort to migrating to IDP camps, begging, or slaughtering remaining animals. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are anticipated in many IDP settlements as drought-related displacement increases and competition for scarce resources intensifies. Other settlements will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), particularly those closer to urban employment opportunities or where IDPs are relatively integrated.

Growing confidence in a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions in early 2026 is strengthening forecasts of average April-June gu rainfall. However, an alternative scenario of moderately below-average rainfall (10-25 percent deficits) remains credible. Under this alternative scenario, area-level outcomes would remain unchanged, but the proportion of the population facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and worse outcomes would increase. It is currently evaluated that significantly below-average rainfall has a low probability of occurring; if such a scenario were to materialize, it would prompt an assessment of the risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5), with high concern for outcomes between June and September.

This report provides an update to the October 2025 to May 2026 Food Security Outlook and the November 2025 Key Message Update. The analysis is based on information available as of December 23, 2025.