Mogadishu, February 12, 2026: Somalia’s Federal Government, via the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change, the Permanent Representative to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and the Somali Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA) in partnership with National Institutions, WMO, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Somalia Water and Land Information Management (FAO-SWALIM), and the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), has issued the Gu (March–April–May) 2026 Seasonal Climate Outlook to guide preparedness, anticipatory action, and response planning. This outlook comes amid a challenging humanitarian situation, following a failed Deyr 2025 season, an extended Jilaal dry period, and an ongoing drought that has significantly impacted livelihoods throughout much of the country.

Key Findings and Takeaways from the Gu (March-April-May) 2026 Seasonal Outlook:
– The Gu 2026 season is projected to bring above-average rainfall to most of Somalia, potentially providing temporary relief from persistent dry conditions. However, some areas including Awdal, Bari, and parts of Lower and Middle Juba may experience below-average rainfall, highlighting ongoing spatial variations and uncertainties.
– The Gu rains are expected to commence in late April, with possible false starts and early dry spells.
– Above-normal air temperatures are anticipated across most of Somalia during the Gu season. Higher temperatures could increase evaporation, water demand, and heat stress, potentially limiting the benefits of rainfall for crop and pasture recovery.
– Despite low river levels potentially limiting early irrigation, the risk of localized flooding later in the season is heightened, especially in the Juba-Shabelle river basins where above-average rainfall is forecast. Heavy rains in upstream areas could intensify flood risks in downstream and floodplain regions.