Nairobi – The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) has predicted a strong probability of diminished rainfall across extensive areas of the northern Greater Horn of Africa during the crucial June-September 2026 rainy season, sparking worries about potential effects on food security, water resources, and livelihoods throughout the region. The forecast issued by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), a World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recognized regional climate center, indicates that reduced precipitation will impact significant portions of South Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan, and regions of western and coastal Kenya. ICPAC released the forecast through the WMO-backed network of Regional Climate Outlook Forums, which unite climate scientists, meteorological services, and sectoral stakeholders to develop seasonal forecasts utilized for planning and early warnings in climate-sensitive sectors. GHACOF functions as a vital regional forum that brings together specialists and practitioners from fields including agriculture, health, water resources, and disaster risk management to analyze climate information for decision-making purposes. This seasonal forecast is especially important as the June-September period constitutes more than half of the annual rainfall in numerous northern regions and exceeds 80 percent in Sudan. The expected below-normal rainfall could have extensive consequences, especially for rain-dependent farming, livestock farming, hydropower production, water supply systems, food security, and public health readiness. “June to September represents a critical rainy season for nations in the northern and western regions of the Greater Horn of Africa, comprising over 50% of annual precipitation and more than 80% in most areas of Sudan,” stated the World Meteorological Organization. ICPAC observed that the developing 2026 climate patterns resemble those of intense El Niño years like 1997 and 2023, when various regions of Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, and western Kenya encountered reduced rainfall during the same period. “These previous years offer valuable insights for preparation and proactive measures; nevertheless, this seasonal forecast continues to be the primary reference for planning and decision-making,” ICPAC reported. The World Meteorological Organization plans to issue an updated assessment of El Niño conditions in early June, potentially offering more precise seasonal expectations. The forecast reveals notable spatial variations in rainfall distribution throughout the region. Near-normal rainfall conditions are anticipated in northern Sudan, southern coastal Somalia, and certain areas of Kenya, whereas there is a high probability of diminished rainfall (60-80%) over central, northeastern, and northwestern Ethiopia, southern Sudan, and northern Uganda, with the most significant deficits expected in northeastern Ethiopia. The report additionally indicated, isolated areas of increased rainfall are predicted across northern Sudan, southeastern Ethiopia, and sections of Somalia, encompassing southern and northern coastal regions. A delayed start to rains is probable in parts of South Sudan, Ethiopia, and southern Sudan, while specific regions in north-central Ethiopia and central Sudan may encounter near-normal or marginally early commencement. Beyond rainfall deficiencies, the outlook also suggests an increased probability of above-average temperatures across most of the Greater Horn of Africa. The most pronounced warming trends are forecast for northern Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia, conditions that could exacerbate water stress and evaporation losses. ICPAC stressed that National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) across member states will provide detailed country-specific forecasts and guidance to assist with preparedness planning and early intervention. GHACOF, which gathered on 18-19 May 2026, assembled representatives from all 11 IGAD member states. These are: Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda, along with participants from agriculture, water, health, disaster risk management, climate change, media, NGOs, humanitarian agencies, and development partners. The forum highlighted the necessity of converting seasonal forecasts into functional early warning systems and coordinated responses to diminish the potential humanitarian and economic effects of climate variability throughout the region.