The October-December 2025 rainy season has largely failed throughout Somalia, eastern Kenya, and southern Ethiopia. Late season recovery in December is no longer feasible, representing the second or third consecutive deficient season for numerous impacted regions.

Agricultural and livestock conditions are unfavorable throughout the region. Kenya is experiencing crop failure or minimal harvests, whereas Ethiopia’s southern pastoral zones are suffering due to insufficient rainfall, compromising livestock-dependent livelihoods. In Somalia, more than 185,000 individuals have fled their homes because of drought, with extensive crop losses and severely deteriorated grazing conditions documented. Somalia officially declared a state of drought emergency on November 10, 2025.

Food insecurity will substantially intensify in early 2026 during the approaching pastoral lean season, which reaches its peak between February and March, and the agropastoral lean season, culminating from April to June. Households will confront limited harvests, diminished food reserves, decreased milk production, livestock mortality, and increasing rates of acute malnutrition among children.

Swift intervention is imperative. Measures to support community livelihoods and lessen the consequences of the current inadequate rainy season must be enacted promptly, while preparations for life-saving emergency assistance to address food shortages and prevent and manage acute malnutrition should commence without delay.