The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) recommends that governments, humanitarian agencies, and development partners utilize the regional outlook in conjunction with national and local forecasts to prepare for various scenarios.

The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) has cautioned that most of the Greater Horn of Africa will likely experience above-average precipitation and elevated temperatures during the March-May 2026 season.

This forecast was unveiled at the 72nd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 72), convened in Nairobi from January 26-27, assembling policymakers, scientists, and development partners throughout the region.

Dr Abdi Fidar, Director of ICPAC, stated: “GHACOF continues to serve as a vital regional mechanism for establishing consensus regarding climate risks and converting seasonal forecasts into proactive measures that safeguard lives, livelihoods, and development across the Greater Horn of Africa.”

ICPAC indicates that central and eastern Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, Ethiopia, South Sudan, northern Somalia, and Djibouti have a 45 percent probability of receiving above-average rainfall during this period. Coastal Kenya is anticipated to experience drier conditions than usual, while portions of South Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania, Uganda, and Ethiopia are forecasted to have near-normal precipitation.

“Normal to early rainfall onset is anticipated across most of the region, whereas delayed onset is projected in localized areas of Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Somalia,” ICPAC reported.

Notwithstanding the seasonal forecast, dry periods might still emerge in regions anticipated to receive near-normal or above-average rainfall, while wet periods could manifest in areas projected to experience near-normal or below-normal precipitation.

Temperature increases are also anticipated during this period, with above-average warmth predicted in Sudan, Djibouti, Tanzania, and portions of Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya. Conversely, cooler-than-average conditions are forecasted in parts of central and northern Ethiopia.

ICPAC advises that governments, humanitarian agencies, and development partners should employ the regional outlook in combination with national and local forecasts to prepare for any eventualities.

“ICPAC encourages member states and humanitarian partners to make active use of the ICPAC regional seasonal outlook together with the national and sub-national forecasts issued by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs),” the statement indicated.

“Continuously monitor updated seasonal forecasts, along with sub-seasonal and short-range forecasts, to facilitate timely planning and decision-making.”

While calling on governments to enhance preparedness and anticipatory measures to mitigate potential flood and drought consequences, ICPAC announced that regular updates will be furnished throughout the season, and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will issue detailed, country-specific advisories.

Mr Edward Muriuki, Director of the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD), also underscored the significance of early warning services, stating: “Early warning services are essential in reducing climate risks, delivering timely information that empowers governments, communities, and institutions to prepare for and respond effectively to climate-related dangers.”