Overall projections indicate that 211,767 individuals across all districts will be displaced between December 1, 2025, and March 31, 2026. The majority of these displacements (64%) are expected to result from drought conditions, while conflict accounts for 36%. The greatest concentration of displacement is forecast in the top 15 districts highlighted in the accompanying visualizations.

Drought Projections: Below-average precipitation during the 2025 Deyr season (October-December), following the dry Hagga season (June-September) and the anticipated Jilaal dry spell (mid-December to mid-March), has intensified existing drought conditions. These consecutive seasons of rainfall deficit have progressively worsened the drought situation, leading to heightened displacement rates throughout Somalia.

Conflict Projections: Analysis of recent displacement patterns and conflict risk data (ACLED CAST model) indicates elevated displacement risks during this quarter. Conflict-related displacement is primarily expected in Middle Shabelle and Hiraan regions, with most displaced persons projected to seek refuge in Banadir and Luuq districts.

The DTM-DRC Movement Projections analysis undergoes quarterly updates, with the next assessment covering April to June 2026 scheduled for release at the end of March 2026.