Despite the Gu 2026 (April-June) seasonal forecast predicting normal to above average precipitation, Somalia will likely experience highly variable weather patterns, including heightened chances of dry spells and inconsistent rainfall. These conditions fail to compensate for persistent drought effects from preceding periods, resulting in greater population displacement. Consequently, the Gu 2026 season represents a stabilization phase rather than a recovery period, emphasizing the necessity for continued drought intervention and careful tracking of migration patterns.

In response to these conditions, IOM Somalia’s Displacement Tracking Matrix (DTM), working in partnership with the Danish Refugee Council (DRC), has released a Movement Projections Dashboard covering April-June 2026. This factsheet enables users to examine various displacement estimates and mobility patterns according to different catalysts – drought, flooding, and conflict – each influencing population movements in distinct ways.