Mogadishu, Somalia — The fragile climate balance in Somalia continues to strain under erratic weather patterns, with most northern and central regions expected to remain dry this week, according to a new forecast from FAO’s Somalia Water and Land Information Management (SWALIM) unit. Only light rains are anticipated in isolated pockets of the south, offering little relief to communities grappling with prolonged heat and worsening water scarcity.

The absence of significant rainfall comes as temperatures climb steadily across the country, particularly in the southern lowlands, where persistent heat is increasing evapotranspiration — the combined loss of water from soil and plants. This surge in moisture loss threatens to dry up already depleted farmlands, weaken livestock health, and accelerate the spread of pasture degradation.

In riverine areas along the Juba and Shabelle, FAO reports a low risk of flooding despite recent minor precipitation. While this spares farmers from immediate flood damage, it also underscores a broader challenge: insufficient water levels to sustain irrigation and maintain soil fertility during the planting season. For many subsistence farmers, the short October–December rains, known as the Deyr season, are crucial for replenishing wells and supporting crop growth.

Communities in the central and northern regions—where rainfall has been erratic or entirely absent—face even harsher conditions. Dry pastures are forcing herders to move their livestock over long distances in search of water, adding pressure to already limited resources. In some settlements, rising heat has triggered an increase in heat-related illnesses among both people and animals.

Experts warn that without timely adaptation measures, Somalia’s recurrent cycles of drought and heat stress could erode hard-won gains in food security and resilience. Humanitarian agencies are closely monitoring the situation, as localized water shortages risk compounding existing vulnerabilities in areas still recovering from past droughts.

As the Deyr season progresses, the forecast paints a sobering picture: patchy rains, persistent heat, and growing uncertainty for millions who depend on the land for survival. For Somalia, the message is clear — the changing climate is no longer a distant threat but a daily reality shaping lives, livelihoods, and the future of rural communities.