Mogadishu, Somalia — Southwest State in Somalia is hurtling toward a full-blown humanitarian catastrophe as new figures reveal a dramatic rise in emergency-level hunger and acute child malnutrition. Abdinasir Abdi Arush, Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Disaster Management, has issued a stark warning to international partners: without rapid intervention, thousands could slip into famine conditions within months.

Data from the Food Security and Nutrition Assessment Unit (FSNAU) paints a grim picture. The number of people classified under IPC Phase 4 — the emergency category just one step below famine — has more than tripled since the beginning of the year. From 72,150 individuals between January and March, the figure rose to 139,970 in April–June, then 150,540 in July–September, and now a staggering 227,340 projected for October–December.

Children are bearing the brunt of the crisis. FSNAU estimates that between August 2025 and July 2026, more than 134,000 children under five in Southwest State will suffer from Severe Acute Malnutrition — representing nearly one-third of Somalia’s nationwide caseload.

“These numbers are not just statistics — they are lives on the line. Mothers are skipping meals so their children can eat. Families are selling their last goats to afford a few kilos of sorghum. If we do not act now, the situation will spiral into famine,” Arush said.

Already battered by recurrent droughts, displacement, and economic shocks, communities across Southwest State are running out of options. Humanitarian agencies warn that current resources are insufficient to meet the scale of need. If support remains stagnant, Emergency-level hunger is expected to keep rising well into late 2025 and early 2026 — with some districts at risk of escalating into IPC Phase 5, the famine threshold.

The ministry is calling on Somalia’s international partners, donor governments, and aid agencies to immediately scale up food assistance, therapeutic feeding programs, and nutrition outreach to the hardest-hit communities.

“History will judge us not by how well we assessed the crisis, but by how swiftly we responded to it,” Arush said.

For families in Southwest State, time is running out.