Key Findings
Climate events are becoming more severe and prolonged. Somalia experiences persistent and overlapping environmental challenges such as droughts, floods, and crop and livestock diseases, which destabilize rural livelihoods. Nearly two-thirds (61%) of 1,062 respondents identified drought as a primary concern, with effects often extending beyond six months.
Crop, livestock, and livelihood losses due to climate phenomena serve as major catalysts for cross-border movement. Among individuals affected by drought (n=649) and flooding (n=442), over two-thirds listed crop damage as a key factor prompting departure.
Movement is often restricted, resulting in immobility. The majority (83%) reported household members remaining in climate-affected home communities. Primary reasons for staying included caregiving obligations (47%, n=882), livestock care (47%), and financial limitations (43%), rather than alternative factors.
Environmental shifts can amplify threats, intensifying the effects of armed conflict and instability. 19% of respondents indicated that climate factors had combined with conflict drivers to cause displacement. Among these individuals (n=199), 60% referenced armed conflict and terrorism as reasons for leaving, while 51% mentioned political unrest and riots.
Climate vulnerability correlates with limited education and insecure livelihoods. Almost half (47%) of all respondents had never attended school, and fewer than half (41%) were earning income in the year preceding their movement. Among respondents with income-generating activities (n=433), 48% were employed in climate-sensitive sectors including agriculture, pastoralism, and fishing.
Displaced individuals encounter significant protection challenges. In cases where respondents perceived hazardous locations during displacement (n=1,055), physical violence (66%), robbery (65%), detention (54%), and environment-related illnesses (31%) were the primary risks for adults. During these same movements, caregivers with children identified children as vulnerable to kidnapping (48/85), injury or illness (36/85), and exploitation (32).
Assistance requirements are extensive but frequently unfulfilled. Aid is commonly needed yet unavailable in major displacement
Early warning systems demonstrate inconsistency and low utilization. Although 61% of respondents had access to some form of early warning mechanism, even when alerts were received (n=650), resource deficiencies limited preventive measures (21%).
Local adaptation strategies are present but remain ineffective. While many respondents changed crop varieties (68%) and livestock breeds (70%) to adjust to evolving climatic conditions, most new species exhibit limited resilience. Approximately 61% (n=722) and 70% (n=744) of people who introduced new crops and animals respectively received survivability ratings of one or two, indicating that most newly adapted crops and livestock remained susceptible to environmental pressures.
This country brief is part of a series of four publications addressing Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, and Burundi as part of the MECMEA project. The briefs expand upon a foundational review paper issued in August 2025: The Intersection of Mobility, Environmental and Climate Change, and Conflict in the East and Horn of Africa: A synthesis of existing knowledge and remaining research gaps.
These findings inform high-level policy discussions on climate mobility held in Nairobi and Addis Ababa, as well as national and regional training and capacity-building initiatives with civil society organizations, local authorities, and regional research and academic institutions, all conducted under the MECMEA project.
The MECMEA project comprises a consortium led by the Horn of Africa Regional Environment Centre and Network (HoA-REC&N), and includes Mixed Migration Centre (MMC), Association Djibouti Nature, South Sudan Nature Conservation Organization (SSNCO), and PanAfricare Kenya. MECMEA is supported financially by the European Union, contracted through the International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD), via the Migration and Mobility Dialogue (MMD) Grant Facility.