Climate change and its effects intensify security challenges, including those linked to violent extremism. This is especially true in regions simultaneously vulnerable to climate impacts and facing social and political instability.
In north-eastern Kenya, climate-related challenges are unfolding alongside, and worsening, the activities of a terrorist network headquartered in Somalia. This group has evolved from conducting large-scale attacks in Kenya to persistent, low-intensity attacks and broader community engagement in the border region.
Despite these intertwined crises, understanding how climate change and violent extremism interact remains limited.
As a multidisciplinary team, we conducted workshops with policymakers and practitioners across relevant policy areas in Nairobi and north-eastern Kenya. We also organized focus groups and interviews with community members and leaders in the region.
Our findings highlight how in vulnerable environments, climate change acts as a threat multiplier. It intensifies:
These conditions create increased opportunities for extremists to influence or coerce the local population.
Through discussions with local herders and community leaders in north-eastern Kenya, we found that climate change impacts leave communities more vulnerable to extremist recruitment. Simultaneously, al-Shabaab activities make it harder for these communities to adapt to environmental changes, reinforcing a cycle of fragility.
Climate impacts and insecurity form interwoven dynamics that shape daily life, governance, and prospects for stability in north-eastern Kenya.
Our findings challenge the notion that climate change and security can be addressed separately. Effective responses must combine environmental, social, and security strategies to build long-term resilience.
Livelihood destruction: For pastoralists in north-eastern Kenya’s Garissa and Wajir counties, livestock keeping is not merely a livelihood. It represents their identity, food security, and their children’s future.
However, as droughts and flash floods become more frequent and severe, herds are being decimated. In times of desperation, al-Shabaab positions itself as a provider.
When the land dries up, animals die, farms fail, and people go hungry, especially the youth, they become desperate. Al-Shabaab knows this and exploits it. They offer food, money, and what seems like ‘purpose’ to young boys who feel abandoned by their own government.
What we had not anticipated before this research was the profound emotional toll of climate change and how this creates ideal conditions for al-Shabaab recruitment. The loss of livestock causes deep shame among men who can no longer fulfill their role as providers.
We are men, supposed to provide, but we found ourselves helpless.
In a culture where “a man without animals is seen as a child, no matter his age,” as one respondent put it, this loss of status leads to depression and hopelessness.
Extremist groups exploit this emotional emptiness by offering a sense of status to men who feel they have lost everything else.
Increased migration: As water and pasture disappear, herders are forced to travel much further from home, often entering remote, insecure areas where the state has minimal presence.
This mobility represents a necessary survival strategy, yet it increases the likelihood of encountering al-Shabaab.
Individuals arriving in new areas with depleted resources and no social contacts become vulnerable to recruitment. In these remote areas, al-Shabaab often steps in to provide assistance, including protection.
The absence of veterinary services and schooling creates additional vulnerabilities. When children drop out of school to follow herds, they become soft targets for recruiters.
Social breakdown: Beyond individual loss, violent extremism is unraveling social bonds.
In the past, neighbors could rely on each other. Now, they drift apart because nobody has anything left to offer, leading to a profound loss of community dignity.
When your neighbour comes asking for milk or sugar, you have nothing to offer. Our economy is not just about money; it is about sharing. When livestock die, that sharing disappears, and we become poorer not only in wealth but also in spirit.
The authority of community elders is also under pressure. They lose influence because their traditional wisdom about seasonal patterns is no longer effective. Their status diminishes, creating a leadership vacuum.
Al-Shabaab quickly attempts to fill this void, offering a new sense of order.
Governance challenges: The reach of the Kenyan state is limited in the remote and arid northern region. When aid is delayed or distributed unevenly, it fuels grievances about neglect. Al-Shabaab adeptly uses religious and political language to channel these frustrations against the state, presenting itself as a path to justice.
Moreover, insecurity prevents the delivery of essential services for climate adaptation, leaving the most vulnerable populations dependent on anyone willing to help. This provides al-Shabaab with a clear entry point.
The way forward: Breaking this cycle of vulnerability requires a policy shift that integrates environmental and security strategies. It is necessary to formally recognize climate change as a critical security issue to trigger the multi-agency coordination needed for mitigation.
In practice, this involves aligning national and county-level plans for preventing and countering violent extremism with climate adaptation strategies, enabling agencies to share knowledge and pool resources.
Climate adaptation plans must incorporate conflict analyses to ensure aid does not unintentionally fuel grievances.
Most importantly, future interventions must look beyond technical solutions to address the emotional weight of lost dignity and the breakdown of social structures, fostering resilience in the local economy and community.
